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INTRODUCTION

In war everything is uncertain and variable, intertwined with psychological forces and effects.’
(Carl von Clausewitz)

The Lessons of History studies are interactive digital models of complex historical events, most obviously military campaigns, civil wars or revolutions. The studies, which have been designed with anyone interested in history in mind, may be used in two ways:

a) As study notes with constantly changing graphics used to demonstrate a complex chain of events and the forces and influences at work in determining the outcome;

b) As a means of testing hypothetical outcomes.When reading an account of a complex and fast-changing historical event, such as the Russian Revolution or the Thirty Years War, the American Civil War or Operation Overlord, it is difficult, even with the aid of maps, to keep in one’s mind a clear and coherent grasp of the events as they unfold. The Lessons of History studies provide a constantly changing display of the passage of events and the means to test what might have happened if things had not occurred as they did or if different decisions had been taken.

‘The outcomes of wars are increasingly determined by influences far removed from the battlefield.’ (Basil Liddell Hart)

Each The Lessons of History study seeks to examine the decisive factors that shaped the historical outcomes of the events represented, to identify turning points, dominating influences and what the great German military thinker Carl von Clausewitz called the Hauptschlacht, the decisive struggle at the true centre of gravity of a conflict. The Lessons of History studies also, however, focus on the character and state of mind of political and military leaders, for this is perhaps one of the greatest influences at work on the outcome of historical events.

‘The profoundest truth of war is that the outcome of battles is usually decided in the minds of the opposing commanders. The best history would be a register of their thoughts and emotions, with a mere background of events to throw them into relief. But the delusion to the contrary has been fostered by the typical military history, filled with the details of the fighting and assessing the cause of a victory by statistical computations of the numbers engaged.’ (Basil Liddell Hart)

Each The Lessons of History study comprises a series of chronological Events (similar to turns in a game) that each comprise a number of key historical sub-events, which are replicated in three ways:

a) As Decisions (it being possible to select the decision that was actually taken or a hypothetical alternative);

b) As Events Subject to Chance (it being possible to select the historical outcome or subject the outcome to chance);

c) As Attacks (it being possible to select the historical outcome or subject the outcome to chance).

As sub-events occur, the outcomes are displayed on a map which shows the changing control and ownership of territory or through illustrated displays. A detailed text is included describing each event and sub-event and it is this, a brief essay as it were, which is at the heart of each study; the map, the graphics and the sub-events carried out through the selection of options are a visual illustration of what is described, or of what might have happened.

The effect of and influence on future events of a decision being taken that differs from that which was taken historically, or of an outcome that is different to that which happened in reality, may be far-reaching and The Lessons of History studies seek to take account of this fully and plausibly. As far as is possible, however, the broad chronological chain of events described in the text (that which actually happened) is generally adhered to and never broken entirely, hypothetical outcomes and diversions from historical fact notwithstanding.

The mechanics of The Lessons of History studies are simple and robust, and any historical period or event can be recreated. The size and scope of a study is dictated by the number of events included, which may range from as few as twenty-five to over a hundred (and, furthermore, the number of sub-events in an event can vary from one only to as many as ten).

To complete a study of twenty-five events if selecting only historical outcomes would, if the text is read carefully and a careful note taken of all that happens, take about half an hour.

Each The Lessons of History study is about 50 MB is size and will run in Windows XP, Vista and 8.0, as well as earlier versions, on 32 bit operating systems and with minimal RAM.

I made The Lessons of History because no one else had; because this was the use to which I wanted computers to be put in the service of the study of history. These interactive studies, such as they are, could never hope to replace a book in providing a full understanding of a historical event, but may be of some passing interest.

Steven Vincent

Copyright © 2018 Steven Vincent. All rights reserved.
This work is registered with the UK Copyright Service: Registration No:284719586